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TVB MARKETING CONFERENCE

POLITICAL SPENDING POISED TO SET RECORDS

By Jean Grillo
TVNEWSDAY, Apr 12 2007, 3:11 PM ET

Analysts project even more record-breaking sums of political spending as the presidential races begin.

According to Victor Miller, senior managing director, Bear Stearns, there is 20% more political money in all TV in the 2007-08 cycle then existed in the 2005-06 campaigns.

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"We're seeing about $2.5 billion for all TV political versus $2.1 billion," Miller remarked during today's TVB "Political: Probing the Mother Lode" panel.

"2007 state and local political spending is driving first- and second-quarter earnings in local broadcast," added Evan Tracey, COO, Campaign Media Analysis Group, TNS Media Intelligence.

"Political continues to be a growing part of the pie for local TV," Tracy added. "We just had a State Supreme Court race in Wisconsin that generated over $2 million in TV ad spending."

According to Tracey, broadcast is still the biggest megaphone, but cable is making deeper in-roads, "especially since politicians like to advertise on news shows and cable has 24/7 news."

The calendar, not the candidates, looms as a larger threat, however, to growing political revenues. A growing number of states are moving their primaries to the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday date, with only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevade and South Carolina earlier (in January).

Mark Halperin, ABC News political analyst, commented: "I'm not overly optimistic that candidates are going to want to spend outside those early primaries."

Indeed, according to Tracey, several of those January primary states are considering December 2007 dates.

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