HELP IS HERE FOR WEARY BUDGET FORECASTERS

No wonder a growing number of companies like Cox Communications are moving from fixed annual budgets to periodically re-forecasting their projections during the year.

Who could have predicted the rapid adoption curve for the iPhone and its impact on advertiser interest in mobile advertising? 

Many of us are hunkered down these days creating the market projections for the next five-to-17 months that will determine how well we ran our businesses and how big our bonuses will be. 

But forecasting revenue and cash flow growth isn’t as easy as it was when we could rely upon results from the last year that we had a Summer Olympics and presidential election.

Today, we also need to look at the trends affecting consumer behavior and our advertisers.

For example, we’re already seeing the shift of more political campaign spending into Web-based activities.

As a whole, Internet adverting represents 50% of the advertising growth in North America this year and 32% of ad revenue growth globally, according to Group M’s tracking study.      

And what about mobile? Who, besides the Apple product development team, was thinking about iPhones when they were developing their 2007 budgets last year?

Analysts predict that there will be more than 1.5 million iPhones in the market by year-end. Apple is also projecting more than 15 million video-capable iPods.

While iPhones are exclusive to Apple and AT&T mobile, they aren’t AT&T’s only video-capable phones. And other providers such as Sprint, Verizon and T-Mobile also offer mobile phones that can support video.

Add to that the knowledge that most mobile phones are also capable of sending and receiving text messages, which can be used to promote products (or candidates).

In fact, mobile advertising, which was nonexistent during the last presidential election, will nearly quadruple from last year’s $60 million to $275 million in 2007, according to Yankee Group’s forecasts. 

Advertisers, including political campaign strategists, are following these consumer trends. We need to follow suit if we expect to follow the money. But how do we translate these behavioral changes into predictable results?

BCFM is helping to answer that question by providing a forum for the exchange of ideas and market information to our members: Anytime…Anyplace: Making Money from the Growth in Personalized Media.

Scheduled for Sept. 19 in New York City, the seminar will include an overview on advertising trends from Kip Cassino, VP of research for Borrell Associates; insights into selling new services from Frank Murray, president of InterTech Media, and Taz Media’s Jim Tazarak; and a presentation on new media and advertising technology by Basil Badawiyeh, VP of on-demand strategy for C-COR. 

The seminar will close with “real stories” presentations by companies that are already making money in personalized media, including AP Radio and News Over Wireless.

Making it easier than ever for our members and others to get information about the seminar and other educational opportunities is BCFM’s new, more user-friendly Web site (www.bcfm.com). We will continue to add features to the site based on member requests.

We hope the new members-only area will provide another incentive for non-members to join the association. We will continue to add features to the site based on member requests.

So, if you find yourself in need of data for your budget narrative, don’t hesitate to visit our Web site.

The public area provides a number of links that are invaluable at this time of the year. If you don’t find what you’re looking for, and suspect it may be in the members-only area, reach out to someone in your company who is a BCFM member.

BCFM members can also access an “Ask the Experts” service that is particularly useful with specific budget questions.

But most importantly, I hope that you take advantage of resources like those available from TVNEWSDAY and BCFM as you do your financial modeling for 2008.

A highly competitive presidential election and the Summer Olympics portend good fortune for television companies, especially if Beijing has you contemplating the role of Web cookies in your menu of advertising offerings.

Mary Collins is the president of the Broadcast Cable Financial Management Association, a professional society for financial, MIS and HR executives in the electronic media. Her column appears here every other Friday. She can be contacted at mcollins@bcfm.com or 847-716-7000.