Over the years, relations between the broadcasting and consumer electronics industries have sometimes been strained, even though they are heavily dependent on one another.

Right now, they seem to be getting along just fine, working together in making sure the country makes a smooth final transition from analog to digital broadcasting. Both are members of the inter-industry DTV Transition Coalition dedicated to that goal.

That doesn't mean their perspectives of the transition are perfectly aligned.

Broadcasters see the final days to the analog broadcasting cut-off on Feb. 17, 2009, as a major challenge that could end with millions complaining to their congressmen about why their trusty old TVs don't work anymore.

But, in this interview with TVNEWSDAY Editor Harry A. Jessell, Gary Shapiro, who represents some 2,000 makers and sellers of TVs and other electronic gadgets as president of the Consumer Electronics Association, seems far less concerned. He sees the transition as a manageable chore.

As a result of the industries' awareness campaigns and government's converter box program, he says, most people who rely solely on over-the-air broadcasting will equip themselves with new TVs or converter boxes by Feb. 17, 2009, and go right on watching their favorite shows without interruption.

The “tiny number” who somehow failed to get the message and take action before the deadline will quickly figure out what to do after their pictures disappear, he says.

An edited transcript of the interview follows:

How would you characterize the state of the DTV transition today?

The success of HDTV has exceeded even our most optimistic expectations. By the end of the year, 36% of American homes will have HDTV, which is actually incredibly similar to what we projected 10 years ago. No one ever gets it right in the long term. I mean one short-term mistake and it throws everything off.

The big surprise is that the DVD has been a driver of HDTV, even though DVD is not HDTV, at least the current generation.

We thought broadcasters would be a little more aggressive in going to HDTV. We saw it as an opportunity for broadcasters to capture back market share, especially in the over-the-air world. We have been promoting over-the-air broadcasting with www.antennaweb.org rather aggressively. [NAB President David Rehr] has expressed interest in joining us on that and we're pleased that broadcasters now see the value.

How could he not?

I used to go to the NAB convention every year and encourage them to promote over-the-air broadcasting. It's something that they should have been doing 10 years ago.

Do you think if they did so now, they could recapture market share lost to the cable and satellite guys?

Well, it's clearly a different world than when we embarked on this HDTV journey 20 years ago. Then, satellite was the new competition to cable and broadcasters. Now, the competition is also wireless and fiber and video games and DVD. There's a tremendous amount of competition for eyeballs.

Broadcasters would have done better if they had focused on promoting over the air, but they've been sidetracked with other issues like must carry and violence in television and all sorts of other thing. But I have enough challenges leading the consumer electronics industry. I'm not going to start second-guessing the broadcasting industry.

When I asked you to characterize the state of the DTV transition, I didn't mean HDTV. I meant the transition of broadcasters from analog to digital leading up to analog cut-off on Feb. 17, 2009. Is that on track?

Yes. It is on track. It's the nature of the beast that there is some concern and there are those who have not been close to the situation who are even more concerned.

The goal is to make sure that everyone understands that this transition is coming and to make wise decisions before February 2009, and we're working hand and hand with the various broadcaster organizations and cable organizations and satellite companies. Everyone is in agreement that that is a worthy goal.

Now, as a practical matter, what is going to happen in February of 2009 is that people who keep cable or satellite will not know the difference. So, 90% of the population has nothing to do with this and may not even pay attention to what's going on.

So the issue is, what about the 8% or 9% that just gets TV exclusively over the air. Will they know, and, if they do not know, what will occur? Well, we think overwhelmingly they will know. But, of course, you can't reach everybody. A tiny number of people will somehow miss our multiple messages and retailer and manufacturer advertising and broadcasting PSAs and bus posters and AARP warnings and everything else.

But those people will | More …