TV broadcasters have been expecting a big lift from political campaign advertising next year. They won't be disappointed.

TV advertising by politicians could approach $3 billion in 2008, according to Evan Tracey, who closely tracks the ad category for TNS Media Intelligence.

The “floor” will be between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion, Tracey said at the TVB Forecast Conference in New York this morning.

But unforeseen events often affect campaigns and they are more likely to drive spending up than down, he added.

In 2006, for instance, the Mark Foley congressional page scandal and Joe Lieberman's independent run for the Senate in Connecticut generated an extra $150 million in political spending, he said.

Even if the spending stops at $2.6 billion, it will be a record, Tracey said. The take was $2.4 billion in 2006 and $1.7 billion in 2004.

Not surprising, nearly a third of the money in 2008 will come from the wide-open race for the presidency.

Candidates, parties and interest groups seeking to influence the election will spend $750 million, he said.