When it comes to online and mobile revenue, Kip Cassino’s message is simple: Get it while you can.

Keynoting BCFM’s New York seminar last month, Making Money from the Growth in Personalized Media, Borrell Associates’ top researcher said online ad spending would will more than double from 2005 to 2011 to $40 billion. But, after that, the dollars will begin to decline, dropping by $3.2 billion in 2012.

The reason? Companies will begin directing marketing efforts elsewhere, including venues that provide greater measurement, control and results. 

For example, when newspapers first experienced a decline in employment advertising, it would have been easy to cite online portals like Monster.com as the new competition.

But analysis showed that their employers were investing more of their money in their own online recruitment portals.

And the trend continues: When B2B magazine recently asked 4,000 companies where they planned to increase their ad spending in the coming year, 43% of them answered “my own Web site.”

While online ad sales may peak in 2011, non-ad marketing on the Web will continue to grow, Cassino said.

The category will grow from less than $5.5 billion in 2005 to nearly $17 billion in 2011 and then jump by another 6.1% the following year. 

Underscoring the importance of determining how media outlets can serve that space, Cassino passed along an observation from M Group’s Adam Smith: “Once money moves into marketing services [from media], it tends to stay there.”

Of course, there’s plenty of hay to make in the online ad market as it grows to $40 billion over the next four years.

And established media like TV stations represent fertile fields for harvesting a lot of that growth.

For example, the largest increase in online spending will occur in streaming and downloading video ad content, representing a 1,867% growth rate and nearly $2 billion in new revenue. That’s an “off the charts” opportunity, Cassino said.

Another great opportunity will be in the mobile video space. Mobile revenues will grow by more than 1,100% over the next five years. But it won’t be from traditional advertising, Cassino said.

Market estimates predict that as much as 97% of the $327 million growth in mobile will be from content-driven applications. “Mobile device spending accelerates as does the marketing wrapped around it,” he said.

Two things are slowing down even greater growth in the mobile space, according to Cassino. And both of them will be resolved in the near term.

The first is the user interface on such mobile devices as cell phones. Navigating menus by using our thumbs and index fingers is a detriment that will be overcome as we move toward voice commands.

The other obstacle is the ad community’s reticence to try something new. Marketers are cautious to commit portions of their budgets without the data to support an ROI. 

Fortunately, we are tearing down that wall as well. As our seminar attendees heard from the presenters who followed Cassino’s keynote, broadcasters are among the companies that are achieving tangible results from extending their brands across the online and mobile platforms.

Stay tuned. I’ll pass along examples from their “real stories” sessions in my next column.

Thanks to our co-chairs, Bresnan’s Andy Kober and New Northwest Broadcasters’ Trila Bumstead, attendees at the NewYork seminar enjoyed great return on their modest investment of time and money.

And it’s not too late for you to do the same. We’ll be holding an encore presentation in LosAngeles on Jan. 24, 2008. Visit our Web site www.bcfm.com for more details.

Mary Collins is the president and CEO of the Broadcast Cable Financial Management Association, a professional society for addressing the diverse needs of financial and business professionals in the broadcast, cable, and electronic media industries. Her column appears here every other Friday.