National presidential campaign spending could begin within just a few days after the Feb. 5 primaries.

That’s one of the insights that BCFM’s board of directors and D.C.-area members gleaned from an update by Evan Tracey, COO of TNS Media Intelligence’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, during their recent meetings in the nation’s capital.

The luncheon was sponsored by Levanthal Senter & Lerman, a longtime supporter of our organization.

Other highlights of Tracey’s presentation:        

“I don’t want my candidate swift-boated”—Ad spending by “527” groups, like the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth from 2004, will help to drive national spending on national cable networks and TV stations by both the 527s and campaign strategists, who will move quickly counter negative messages about their candidates. We can expect to see more 527 ads this time around. As the New York Times reported this past Monday, “the amount [being raised by 527 groups] could swamp the record-breaking tens of millions that the top candidates are raising for their own, closely regulated campaign accounts.”

Hyper-focus on Iowa—Spending is already way ahead of 2004 and we’re just entering the 90-day window. With few exceptions, the money is all being spent in Iowa thus far, with strategists following the spending formula used by 2004 winners.

“You can’t take it with you”—In addition to anticipating increased spending in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Tracey and other strategists predict that all of the candidates will stay in the race and continue to advertise until at least the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primaries.

“Follow the leader”—Campaign strategists, like most media buyers, prefer the “tried and true” approach over innovation. It will be important to keep this in mind as we see more than 21 states advance their own primary elections to Feb. 5 or earlier to compete for attention.

2007 well ahead of 2003—Campaign spending follows a four-year cycle, and one of the reasons for expecting record spending in 2008 is what we’ve seen in 2007. More money was spent on local elections in 2007 compared to 2003. Mayoral races were up $12 million; spending in other races increased $80 million.

Local campaigns budgeting for a busy 2008—Expect even more money to be spent in local elections this year. First, there will be more of them. There will also referendums on big-ticket issues like gaming, which attracted 25 million in ad spending this past year. Next, as we saw with the tobacco settlement, state courts are having a big impact on local businesses, which is driving campaign spending for state Supreme Court judgeships. And, as we get closer to 2010 and redistricting, the Democratic and Republican parties will become acutely interested in holding a majority of the votes in state legislatures.

TV still on top—Regardless of the outcome for any election this year, television will be a big winner. As campaigns raise more money, more of that money will end up being spent on advertising. According to Tracey, other campaign expenses, such as staff and campaign buttons, are typically fixed numbers in the budget. When more money is raised, it flows into advertising.

BCFM Looks Ahead

In addition to looking into the crystal ball for the 2008 elections, the BCFM board continued to look for ways to serve the membership. The strategic planning portion of our board meeting kicked off with an insightful presentation on needs analysis by Richard O'Sullivan, principal of Change Management Solution.

O’Sullivan, who travels the globe working with new governments on determining which activities are best left to association-led initiatives, described the importance of developing demand-driven business models that aren’t based upon the immediate demands of an organization’s members.

Instead, the effective organization is one that looks at the demands of its members’ customers or their customers’ customers. For example, this approach helped an association serving the copier industry to recognize its broader mission in business technology. After engaging in some demand network analysis, these companies realized that their greatest growth opportunity wasn’t in selling copiers. It was in helping their customers with their larger needs for managing information.

As O’Sullivan pointed out, we are operating in a post-collaborative economy that was largely shaped by the impact of just-in-time inventory management and quick-response electronic data initiatives.

When we look at how innovators like Google are applying those productivity enhancements to services for ad-supported media, it becomes easier to appreciate the importance of conducting demand network analysis to ensure that BCFM and its Broadcast Cable Credit Association subsidiary continue to provide relevant services to our members and the media industry.

Congratulations to Paul McTear

BCFM adds its congratulations to Paul McTear, president and CEO of Raycom Media, on being inducted into the Broadcasting & Cable Hall of Fame. Paul, who served as Raycom’s CFO before his CEO appointment in 2002, has been a great supporter of our organization throughout his career.

He served on our board of directors earlier in his career and has continued to share his insights and encouragement as a featured speaker at our annual conference.

Paul, a former NAB chairman, began his career as an accountant at Providence Journal Co.’s WPHL in his hometown of Philadelphia. He went on serve as vice president of finance and corporate development for the company, where he was involved in its launch of two cable networks, the Food Network and America's Health Network; Colony Cable, a former top 10 cable MSO; and ProJo’s ventures into the cellular telephone and paging businesses.

Mary Collins is the president and CEO of the Broadcast Cable Financial Management Association, a professional society for addressing the diverse needs of financial and business professionals in the broadcast, cable, and electronic media industries. Her column appears here every other Friday.