That was how the state of television—the changing state of television—was summed up by Jeff Zucker, president/CEO of NBC Universal, in his opening keynote at the annual NATPE convention in Las Vegas.

Zucker emphasizes that people will always want to be touched and entertained by great content, cheer their sports teams ... the creation and marketing of this content "is not changing" says Zucker.

What is changing, he contends, is everything else. Technology is driving startling changes in consumer behavior. New technology is no longer just the domain of "early adopters."

Citing the rapid penetration of DVRs, he says, "the people who covered the blinking VCR clock with black tape have no problem operating the DVR."

But the shift in business models for the networks is seismic. “Ten years ago Bob Wright said NBC was not in the TV business but in the ‘video in the home business.’” It is amazing, Zucker says, how much things have changed since then. NBC can be viewed in supermarkets, gas stations, taxicabs and cell phones. The appointment is made by the viewer and not the scheduling department.

"In past years if a TV executive was speaking here at NATPE, he would always say that the outlook for broadcasting is bright ... but I can't say that. We are in the middle of a wrenching change in technology and consumer behavior."

Zucker describes the industry as "in a gentle downward slide, disguised by a robust economy."

Referring to the Writer's Guild strike, Zucker says it has “presented us with an interesting paradox.” Likening the strike to a forest fire, which causes disruption and misery, the fire also clears ground and  fertilizes the soil, "creating the opportunity for robust growth."

Zucker says if government regulators recognize the changes in the marketplace, the industry may take advantage of the new landscape.

The industry, he continues, can no longer afford to ignore the many technological and content changes, but must create new entertainment platforms, new advertising metrics, and "a willingness to adapt to change."

NBC Universal, he says, can expect many years of growth if they adopt those changes. The strike, he says, has given the business a new opportunity to analyze the business.

Zucker says regarding NBC's announced intention to produce fewer pilots, the network is still fully committed to scripted programming—which he described as fundamental to network's success. But last year, he says, NBC spent almost half a billion dollars on pilots, only six of which were picked up—about 10%. Two years earlier, 12 returned and only Heroes could be considered a hit.

So why not make fewer pilots, he asked, and show courage and just order series direct to air, just the way they do in Britain—"and we keep importing their shows."

He also mentions Psych and Burn Notice and Starter Wife as three examples from USA Network that went direct to series and became successful. (Psych will debut on NBC this April.)

"This is not about making less programs," says Zucker, "it's about making less waste. We'll still make some pilots—the ones our executives believe in.

"For the price of that one pilot (we don't produce) we can produce six episodes of an actual series."

If the networks go back to their old ways as some journalists have predicted, "we will completely destroy the business."

At the station level, he says, "the changes are just as far-reaching. We don't even have a station division any more. We call it NBC Local Media and stations are just a part of what we are about. Our competition is all local advertising no matter what platform.

“Our business model leverages our strong local connections. We're about in-home and mobile content and advertising.

“Digital multicasts and broadband video about lifestyle and local entertainment content. We're about serving our advertisers in new ways. This must be our focus if we are to maintain our commitment to free over-the-air television."

Another NBC priority, Zucker says, is to serve localities where NBC does not have a TV station at all.

He went on to identify three things the broadcasting industry needs:

• New markets and new ways of reaching viewersthrough new businesses like HuLu. “We must not trade digital pennies forad dollars.”
  
  
• New metrics to demonstrate value. The 30-secondspot is still very viable, but different.
  
  
• New and improved regulatory framework for broadcasting.He says there's a revolution in the communications landscape but Washington has notrecognized it. In 1996 Congress declared that local TV deserves to thriveand flourish. Twelve years later, this national/local partnership is at acrossroads facing unprecedented competition with 90 percent of audiencewilling to pay for their connection.

Therefore the FCC needs to fundamentally question how regulatory policies should adjust. The regulations need to consider the vitality of the business. Instead, he says, we see a series of unrelated regulations inspired by "the passions of the moment."

But with all these changes, he says, the business still comes down to a need for great content and great storytelling that informs, educates and entertains people.