TVB is forecasting that total spot revenue in 2009 will decline between 2 and 5 percent from 2008.

The actual percentage decrease "will depend on when the economic recovery begins and how strong it is," said TVB CEO Chris Rohrs at the TVB Forecast Conference in New York this morning.

That 2009 total comprises national spot, which the trade group says will be down 7 to 10 percent and local spot, which will range from down 1 percent to up 2 percent.

For 2010, the organization predicts that total spot will increase 6-10 percent, based on the return of Olympics, the economic recovery and political spending that will include gubernatorial races in 36 states.

Local spot should see a boost of 1.5 to 5 percent in 2010, with national spot jumping ahead by 12.5 to 16.5 percent.

Rohrs acknowledged that TVB's forecast last year for 2008's total spot revenue missed the mark. It had projected an 8 percent gain.

Now, TVB says, the best that can be hoped for is to remain flat. And that will only happen if a presumed $2.25 billion in political advertising materializes. Excluding political dollars, core total spot revenue this year will be down 7.4 percent. "We are going to need that very strong political spending," Rohrs said.

In announcing the predictions, Rohrs noted that in 2000, TVB began issuing two-year forecasts instead of its traditional one-year forecast. "The structure of the business has changed dramatically because of the Olympics switching to a two-year frequency and because of the growth of political advertising in spot.

"Odd years will always face tough comparison to even, when spending on political and the Olympics shows up. Spot TV is a two-year business cycle."

The projections are based on a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station reps and independent TVB research. TVB is forecasting that total spot revenue will decline between 2 and 5 percent next year, compared to this year.