Make Lemonade from the Economic Mess
Back in July, when MFM scheduled last week's distance learning seminar, "Recession Readiness: Strategies to Succeed in a Down Market," we were still debating the controversial nature of using that R word.
Given the most recent financial developments, which seem to be getting worse, I know I'm not alone in wishing that recession would have remained more a matter of debate than a likelihood.
As the second part of the seminar title suggested, its content focused on not allowing short-term financial challenges to undercut a company's long-term strengths.
Thanks to session moderator Dwight Delapenha, a partner at Grant Thornton, and the ideas shared by his colleagues at the firm, attendees learned how to shore up their relationships with advertisers, focus employee recruitment and retention programs and evaluate their purchasing activities.
In addition to the tactical wisdom provided by the presenters, their theme of capitalizing on the opportunities inherent in the current market's challenges was an invaluable takeaway.
That message is becoming even more important with the impact of each passing week's market developments on Main Street businesses as well as on Wall Street's investment banks and our individual retirement accounts.
Thank Goodness for Election-Year Ads
One of the sliver linings surrounding the current economic downturn is that it coincides with a presidential election year. While we may not experience the bidding war between retail and campaign advertisers that analysts had anticipated, we are seeing record-level spending for this year's elections.
TVNewsday recently reported that Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence's Campaign Media Analysis Group, predicts a total of $3 billion will be spent on campaign ads from all candidates and for all issues on November ballots. More than $180 million has already been spent on 337,000 airings of political commercials since the middle of June, according to Tracey.
As anticipated, and as we're experiencing first-hand in our own TV viewing, campaign spending by 527 organizations represents a hefty portion of the campaign inventory.
While we can all empathize with the candidates who have called for limiting or eliminating these third-party ads, some networks and new media companies are seizing the underlying opportunity to attract viewers by producing fact-checking news stories.
This service also represents a great cross-platform opportunity, where on-air news coverage helps to drive viewers to the additional in-depth reporting and election resources that Web sites can provide more easily. And as we've seen, Web-based campaign news and information also provides local ad sales teams with content that can attract a candidate's or issue's online ad spending.
Smaller Boxes This Holiday Season
Another challenging aspect of the economic outlook is its impact on holiday season ad spending, which typically helps to provide stations with their strongest quarter for ad revenues. The National Retail Federation (NRF) is projecting retail sales for the industry's peak selling season to grow by only 2.2 percent over last year. The figure is half the 10-year average annual growth for sales.
Here, too, there are opportunities for companies that are willing to look beyond the threatening forecasts. One strategy that radio stations are using to put something as valuable as clean coal in their Christmas stockings is to go after retailers other than the big box stores. Inside Radio reported earlier this week that they are targeting stores that have two, rather than 42, locations.
Local banks also provide another reason for believing that local businesses may be in a better position to advertise.
A recent article in the New York Times told the story of Bank of Smithtown, Long Island. While some local businesses took advantage of credit offers from lenders who required "nothing more than a tax ID number to qualify for a loan," banks like Smithtown didn't stray from good old-fashioned underwriting. As a result, they continue to have strong balance sheets and are poised to provide credit to qualified businesses and consumers in their communities.
The Upside of Recession-Driven Behavior
Of course, the outlook for next year also poses challenges. NRF doesn't see things improving until at least mid-year and other analysts are reminding us that the S&L debacle required a multi-year recovery.
So, where do we find the silver lining among all these economic storm clouds? Traditional media may have the advantage, according to a recent item in Television Week.
"In hard economic times, people go back to what they know works, and that's television,'' David Levy, president of ad sales and sports for Turner Broadcasting told the magazine. Data from Nielsen bear out Turner's experience. Television was one of the strongest categories for ad growth in the first half of 2008.
In addition, cable networks can also meet advertiser demand for better targeting. As Jon Steinlauf, senior VP of ad sales for the Scripps Networks noted, advertisers like Home Depot may be cutting ad budgets overall, but not on channels like HGTV and DIY, where they can reach a concentrated audience of their customers.
Revised forecasts for online ad spending are also helping to bear out television's comfort food appeal to media buyers.
eMarketer recently cut projections for Internet ad spending for the second time this year. It now expects Internet advertising growth to slow to 17.4 percent this year and that it will slow even more next year, to 14.5 percent. "Online advertising will not grow as fast because of the economic problems," eMarketer senior analyst David Hallerman told Business Week.
Online Opportunities Getting Even Better
Although those levels are way down from online's 25 percent growth rate in 2007, many media companies would love to see that level of growth in their ad budgets, especially during a deeply troubled economy. TV stations and cable systems can apply the axiom of capitalizing on current challenges to improve their competitive positioning by providing advertisers the combined value of their television and online capabilities.
As Jeremy Kagan, professor at Columbia Business School, told attendees at MFM's annual conference earlier this year, paid search advertising continues to represent the lion's share of online ad spending.
Given what we believe about an advertiser's preference to go with the safest investments during a down economy, the closer local media outlets can align their online advertising sales with the advertiser's demand for click-through Web traffic, the more likely it will be for those outlets to grow their online revenues in the coming months.
Kagan is one of the co-chairs for MFM's upcoming regional seminar in New York and has been working with Co-Chair Richard Taub, vice president of business development for V-me Media, to develop a great lineup of topics and presenters to discuss "Follow the Money: Give Advertisers What they Want," the seminar's title.
The seminar will be held on Thursday, Oct 16, at the Penn Club in Manhattan. It will feature insights on how to achieve this objective from a number of leading experts representing the media buying and new media ad sales communities.
The roster of presenters includes executives from such industry leaders as AOL, AvenueA|RazorFish, Beyond Interaction, blip.tv, INVISION, MediaBank, Magna Global, Pando, Publicis Groupe, TVB and YouTube.
The seminar will be well-timed for media companies looking to capitalize on opportunities in our down market. More information is available on MFM's Web site, www.mediafinance.org.
Industry veterans who have experienced earlier economic downturns know that retail marketers are highly motivated to seize the opportunities that allow them to weather the storm.
While these are challenging times for our own companies, this is also the very best time for us to be marketing the media industry's ability to drive sales and spur an economy. Those among us who are the most effective in making that sale are sure to enjoy smoother sailing when conditions improve.
History tells us that a number of Americans made their fortunes during the Great Depression. It was all about seizing the opportunity.
Television's great advantage is its local nature. I really believe that despite the economy you can seize that opportunity and create your own success.
Mary Collins is the president and CEO of the Media Financial Management Association (formerly the Broadcast Cable Financial Management Association), a professional society for addressing the diverse needs of the industry's financial and business professionals. Her column appears here every other Friday.
Copyright 2008 TV Newsday, Inc. All rights reserved.
This article can be found online at: http://www.tvnewsday.comhttp://www.tvnewsday.com/articles/2008/10/03/daily.2/.
Please visit http://www.tvnewsday.com/ for more on this and other breaking news concerning the TV broadcasting industry.

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