In the face of a rapidly deteriorating economy, the Television Bureau of Advertising today lowered its TV station revenue forecast for 2009, projecting that total spot sales would fall 7-11 percent.

In its original forecast, issued just after Labor Day, TVB said that total sales would be down just 2-5 percent.
The trade group said that this is only the second time it has had to reissue its forecast. The first time came in 2001 when TVB reissued it forecast for 2002 following the 9/11 attacks.

Breaking down the total, TVB said that local spot would be down 4-8 percent next year and national spot would fall 11.5-15.5 percent. The September forecast had pegged local as flat (between +2 percent and -1 percent) and national down 7-10 percent.

"Due to the unprecedented economic developments of recent months, we reached out to all of our input sources and asked them to review the projections they gave us last summer," said TVB President Chris Rohrs in a prepared statement.

"These are not happy numbers to report, but they are the new reality. We take seriously our obligation to our member stations to give them the most accurate road map as they work through their planning."

TVB's forecast represents a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station rep firms and its own research.